A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
